At Neo Metaliks, our metallurgical operations provide a ground-level perspective on how India’s expanding steel capacity is reshaping global trade. Beyond producing high-grade pig iron, we deliver clear, data-driven intelligence on the upstream raw material flows that fuel our industry—from shifting coking coal supply lines to evolving metallurgical coke trade routes across Asia. We cut through complex market shifts to deliver actionable foresight for the steel sector.
India’s steel sector is expanding, and the ripple effects are being felt across the world’s raw material markets. Over the past five years, the country’s crude steel output has climbed sharply from 104 million tonnes in 2021 to around 169 million tonnes in 2026. India’s installed capacity already touched 220 million tonnes with a target of 300 million tonnes by 2030. Hence, the country’s growing hunger for raw materials is evident.
The Supply Gap Is Massive
India consumes roughly 175 million tonnes of coking coal every year, but local mines produce barely 20 million tonnes. This covers less than 12% of demand. The remaining requirement is fulfilled by importing materials from various sources such as Australia, the US, Mozambique, the Russian Federation, Indonesia and others.
By 2030, industry estimates suggest total coking coal and PCI imports could climb to 120 million tonnes annually, with coking coal accounting for 90 million tonnes and PCI for 30 million tonnes.
New Suppliers Are Stepping In
Australia has long been India’s preferred source of coking coal. However, India’s growing steel production capacity is driving steelmakers to explore alternative suppliers to reduce dependence on only one country (Australia).
Indian buyers are actively sourcing from the United States, Mozambique, and Russia. Russian PCI coal has gained traction due to its competitive pricing and reliable quality. This trend looks set to continue further.
In the coke segment, Indonesia has emerged as the major supplier. It delivered 2.7 million tonnes to India in just the first seven months of the year 2026, and full-year imports are headed toward 6.5 million tonnes.
This figure is expected to reach the levels of 6–7 million tonnes through 2030. Proximity, lower duties, and competitive pricing give Indonesian coke a clear edge over Chinese supplies.
China’s Troubles Are Adding Fuel to the Fire
Production disruptions in Shanxi Province have tightened China’s domestic coking coal supply, pushing global prices higher. While Chinese authorities are pushing suspended mines to restart but a full recovery is unlikely before mid-2027. This extended supply squeeze is keeping international coking coal prices elevated and benefiting alternative suppliers.
What This Means Going Forward
For Indian steelmakers, every procurement decision comes down to total landed cost. Freight rates, raw material quality, import duties, in-house coke production economics and such other factors are being considered during material procurement.
As the country’s steelmaking capacity keeps expanding, demand for imported coal and coke will remain structurally strong for years to come. The near-term price outlook may remain firm.
